S.I.E.R.

The Sonoran Institute for Entropic Research (S.I.E.R.) is a multidisciplinary research institution dedicated to the study of complex systems, uncertainty, and long-horizon risk.

participate
S.I.E.R. scientists in white lab coats working on a large piece of scientific equipment known as Le Maison Dieu in the Bay One laboratory at the North Tower.

Persistence

S.I.E.R exists to transform uncertainty into intelligible structure.

Founded in 1949, S.I.E.R. conducts applied and theoretical research in environments where prediction is difficult, outcomes are non-linear, and long-term stability is a national concern.

The Institute operates in cooperation with public agencies, academic partners, and private-sector organizations whose technical capabilities support sustained inquiry. Founded to address complex systems that resist linear explanation, the Institute conducts interdisciplinary research across ecological dynamics, infrastructural interdependence, economic volatility, and emergent behavior in social and technical domains.

Where traditional analysis isolates variables, S.I.E.R. studies interaction. Our work focuses on systems whose outcomes cannot be understood by examining components alone; systems defined instead by feedback, recursion, and long-term coherence.

Rather than responding to isolated events, the Institute examines three main modes of temporal persistence:

  1. How patterns survive disruption.

  2. How structures adapt without collapsing.

  3. How continuity is maintained across time.

A large scientific instrument, part of the Applied Prediction Environment (A.P.E.), in a S.I.E.R. cleanroom environment, with scientists working nearby. The Bay One lab has a high ceiling with a grid pattern of lights.

Coherence

Through modeling, simulation, archival analysis, and applied systems research, the Institute develops frameworks for interpreting complexity without reducing it. Our work informs public policy, infrastructure planning, environmental management, and risk assessment, particularly in domains where intervention itself alters the system being studied.

S.I.E.R. seeks the conditions under which futures remain coherent.

S.I.E.R. laboratory room with four large scientific instruments and three scientists working, timer clocks on wall, ceiling lights.

Stability


S.I.E.R. research emphasizes resilience over reaction and stability over optimization. We are less concerned with predicting singular outcomes than with understanding why certain outcomes recur, resist intervention, or reassert themselves despite deliberate change.

Research Leadership

  • Portrait of a middle-aged man wearing a black suit, white shirt, and patterned tie, with a neutral expression, against a gray background.

    Thomas R. Baines

    DIRECTOR | Research Compliance

  • A smiling older woman with gray, curly hair, sitting at a desk in front of computer monitors in a technology or research lab.

    Eileen Marnick

    DIRECTOR | Personnel Administration

  • Close-up photo of an older man with gray hair, glasses, and a mustache, wearing a patterned shirt and a lanyard around his neck.

    Dr. Sanjay Mehta

    SR. RESEARCH FELLOW | Applied Modeling

  • A young woman with dark hair and bangs, wearing a white jacket over a gray shirt, standing against a plain white wall.

    Dr. Elaine Whitcomb

    ASSOC. DIR. | Environmental Systems Research

  • A young man with black hair wearing a light blue, striped collared shirt, standing against a plain, light-colored wall.

    Takashi Larkin

    DIRECTOR |  Facilities & Instrumentation

  • Silhouette of a person's head and shoulders, with short hair and pointing to their temple, on a light gray background.

    Daniel Mercer

    RESEARCHER | Long-Horizon Risk

The Founder

Dr. Everett Sloan
 Founder, Sonoran Institute for Entropic Research

Portrait of S.I.E.R. founder Everett Sloan, a middle-aged man with blue eyes, short dark hair with some gray, wearing a brown checkered shirt and a dark tie, smiling softly at the camera.

Dr. Sloan established the Institute’s core research philosophy, that the future could be approached as a system; structured, modelable, and subject to disciplined inquiry, even where outcomes appear uncertain.

“The future is merely a system not yet solved.”

Active Studies

  • A scheduled interval in which select rooms, instruments, and prepared materials are made available under monitored conditions. No single task is assigned. Participants may move through the space in any order.

    This format is used when the Institute is observing how people locate signal, establish routines, and respond to environments that do not explain themselves.

  • A short, bounded trial of a specific procedure. Participants are given a protocol sheet and minimal orientation, then asked to execute the steps as written.

    Used to study compliance, interpretation, and error, especially the differences between what a protocol says and what a person does when time, ambiguity, or discomfort enters the system.

  • A limited period of presence without an assigned objective. Materials may be present. Prompts may be visible. Engagement is optional.

    Used to examine default behavior: avoidance, repetition, attention drift, spontaneous collaboration, and what persists when nothing is demanded.

Participate
Close-up of a complex, metallic scientific instrument with gears, springs, and rods, likely part of a mechanical or quantum device.